By Chris Hollingworth 
A recent market report from CryptoQuant contributor “Onchained” warns investors to be cautious of inaccurate narratives circulating in the cryptocurrency market. According to the analyst, many of these narratives are based on skewed information rather than onchain data, leading to misleading conclusions.
“Beware of misinformation. Despite the data, misleading narratives persist,” Onchained stated in the report. “Such claims often lack onchain validation and are driven by sensationalist market sentiment rather than objective analysis. Trust data, not noise, verify sources and cross-check onchain metrics.”
The report specifically highlights the movements of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) as an example of false narratives conflicting with real data. While some narratives suggest that Bitcoin long-term holders are “capitulating,” the data actually shows that they are remaining consistent. Onchained emphasized that the data leaves no room for speculation.
Additionally, the Inactive Supply Shift Index (ISSI), which measures the movement of long-dormant Bitcoin supply, indicates no significant selling pressure from long-term holders. This reinforces the narrative of structural demand surpassing supply in the market.
Another crypto analytics platform, Glassnode, echoed a similar observation, stating that “Long-Term Holder activity remains largely subdued, with a notable decline in their sell-side pressure.” This highlights the dynamic nature of crypto market narratives, which are constantly evolving and being challenged.
One long-standing narrative under debate is the relevance of the 4-year cycle theory in predicting Bitcoin’s price movements tied to its halving event every four years. Some industry experts, like MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe and Bitwise Invest chief investment officer Matt Hougan, believe that the traditional four-year cycle is no longer applicable due to changing market dynamics.
In a recent analysis, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju suggested that the Bitcoin bull cycle might be over, anticipating a period of bearish or sideways price action in the coming months. Ju pointed to onchain metrics indicating a bear market, with new whales selling Bitcoin at lower prices as fresh liquidity dries up.
As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, investors are advised to stay vigilant, rely on data-backed analysis, and critically evaluate market narratives to make informed decisions.
